2024 Metaculus - Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.

 
If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …. Metaculus

May 24, 2022 · To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ... Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. May 23, 2023, 5:42 AM. A credible source reported that PM Rishi Sunak favours a general election in Oct or Nov 2024. The article goes into some detail on why this seems likely and I concur. Additionally, although unpopular Sunak is very unlikely to face any challenges to his leadership this year due to the political upheaval of the last 12+ …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ...The Metaculus Lens on AI. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the …The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO. There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize.Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By …The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ...The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this …McBride declined to say how much Iridium is paying Relativity per launch, but she said Iridium got a “good price” that was lower then Relativity’s advertised launch price of $12 million per Terran 1 mission. The max advertised payload for the Terran 1 is 1,250 kg to LEO; the list price of $12m per launch gives …Biden's approval rating has remained from 45% to 40% from September 2021 to June 2022, and the US Inflation rate reached 8.5% in 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris, often speculated as being likely to run in 2024, has had a net -10% approval rating from January to June 2022. As of June 2022, no other candidates have expressed intent to run, and ...On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and … Biden's approval rating has remained from 45% to 40% from September 2021 to June 2022, and the US Inflation rate reached 8.5% in 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris, often speculated as being likely to run in 2024, has had a net -10% approval rating from January to June 2022. As of June 2022, no other candidates have expressed intent to run, and ... About Metaculus. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that ... The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …9 10. Probability distribution of the Metaculus community prediction of the implied doubling-time (in number of days) is over the period from 20th of Jan till to the last …By Peter Mühlbacher, Research Scientist at Metaculus, and Peter Scoblic, Director of Nuclear Risk at Metaculus. Metaculus is a forecasting platform where an active community of thousands of forecasters regularly make probabilistic predictions on topics of interest ranging from scientific progress to geopolitics. …Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthrough. In 2022, I ranked 41st out of 4184 Metaculus forecasters for … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. M etaculus Questions This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO. There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize.That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …In addition, the cost of the project has risen from an estimate of $33 billion in 2008 to $93.5 billion by 2022... The complete 500-mile (805-km) Phase 1 system between San Francisco and Anaheim in earlier plans was to be completed in 2033, however, this has been slowed by unanticipated issues. To throw more money at a project that's $100 ...The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project. Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Robert de Neufville is a superforecaster and former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes a Substack on forecasting called Telling the Future. A reading of this essay is featured on the Metaculus Journal Podcast here. Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked in …provided an information source on Nov 9, 2022, 3:46 AM. Guardian: Ron DeSantis landslide victory brings Trump and 2024 into focus. In a landslide victory, with more than 95% of votes in, DeSantis won 59.4% of the vote with 4,607,597. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, won just 40% of the vote with 3,100,603.On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis … Leaderboards. Learn more about Metaculus Medals. Duration: Time Period: Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and polling indicates a closer race than that of Iowa. As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%. The Community Prediction was hidden for 14 hours, and …Dec 19, 2023 · This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ... We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a … Leaderboards. Learn more about Metaculus Medals. Duration: Time Period: Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Sep 12, 2022 · Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the 7-digit ... In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time. Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... The New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and polling indicates a closer race than that of Iowa. As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%. The Community Prediction was hidden for 14 hours, and …Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …The science. Online prediction markets are an extension and specific use of the “efficient markets hypothesis” in investing, in which everyone’s …Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that help …This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire main island of Taiwan is under de facto control of the People's Republic of China. For the purposes of this question, China will be considered to "launch a full-scale invasion" if the event is described as such by both The New …In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time.Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page.. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core …This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ...On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and … Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ... Jun 13, 2011 · 2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ... This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this … Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... The transition from the first phase to the second phase took ∼1000 years, much less than the doubling time of 100,000 years characterizing this phase, and the transition from the second phase to the third took on the order of ∼200 years, still smaller than the 1000 years of doubling time typical of the second phase.The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest noteMetaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance.Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that help …2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. 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This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.. Jeg's

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If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.The New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and polling indicates a closer race than that of Iowa. As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%. The Community Prediction was hidden for 14 hours, and …We can start with estimated global annual spending on computer hardware, which is roughly $1 trillion, and growing at a rate of about 3-4% annually ( Statistica ). A common estimate of compute capacity is about 3 years worth of this spending - roughly $3 trillion. For comparison, world GDP is ~$90 trillion and growing at ~3% annually.This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ...The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page.. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the …Upgraded Tech Stack: In 2022, we rewrote nearly the entire Metaculus application, modernizing the Metaculus tech stack to support our 2023 product roadmap. We …On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and …Feb 25, 2022 · This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ... 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and …Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. Resolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank.On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured a cover story calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec 11, 2021.In addition, the cost of the project has risen from an estimate of $33 billion in 2008 to $93.5 billion by 2022... The complete 500-mile (805-km) Phase 1 system between San Francisco and Anaheim in earlier plans was to be completed in 2033, however, this has been slowed by unanticipated issues. To throw more money at a project that's $100 ...meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details.Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. …The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core …On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and …538. This is 28 elections with 14979 electors, of which 17 were faithless (occurring in 11 separate elections). That equates to just under 40% of elections in this period having at least one faithless elector. It also gives a 0.1135% chance of any given elector being faithless. With 538 electors in 2024, it would suggest a 61% chance of at ...Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.Feb 29, 2024 · Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so navigation is fast and ... Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ... Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ...This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...About Metaculus. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate …In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang.Metaculus.com is a site that rates the likelihood of various scientific and technological outcomes based on user opinions. Launched by …We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co …The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions.Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S. election! We solicited probabilistic predictions about risks to the U.S. general election on 3 November 2020, …The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …Robert de Neufville is a superforecaster and former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes a Substack on forecasting called Telling the Future. A reading of this essay is featured on the Metaculus Journal Podcast here. Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked in …Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that help …A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.Metaculus Scoring System. Note: This page is about the obsolete Metaculus Points. In November 2023, we switched to using Baseline and Peer scores, but this page … Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time. Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.It also resolves positively if: A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event. Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …It also resolves positively if: A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. Under Putin's leadership, Russia has ...Feb 10, 2021 · Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity. May 24, 2022 · To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ... If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.Mar 15, 2023 · If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4. Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info. In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time. Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance.FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook .... 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